Arctic Ocean Climate Change

Oceans 2025: Theme 1, work package 1.8

Our focus is on a modelling evaluation of Arctic Ocean climate change sensitivities. As part of a Rapid Climate Change project, POL has developed an ocean-sea ice model to investigate processes controlling dense water formation and transport in the Barents Sea. The ocean component is the POL Coastal Ocean Modelling System (POLCOMS) and the ice component is the Los Alamos sea ice model (CICE). During Oceans2025, we will enlarge this model to cover the entire Arctic at a 10-km resolution. Work with this model will cover two fronts: (1) investigation of Arctic shelves role in creating, transforming and redistributing Arctic and North Atlantic water masses; (2) modelling of the rate of sea level change in the Arctic.

Left bathymetry of the Arctic Ocean with the Barents-Kara Sea domain boundary delineated in black. Right: The Barents-Kara Sea domain grid.

Sea ice forms in winter over the Arctic shelves. As it forms, plumes of dense water (purple) sink to the bottom and then spread down the continental shelf break slope and mix with ambient water. Eventually, these cascades of dense water reach their level of neutral buoyancy, at which point they disperse horizontally into the deep Arctic and the North Atlantic.